[1]宋艳,孙典,苏子逢.台风疏散时间选择决策建模与仿真[J].哈尔滨工程大学学报,2018,39(04):793-798.[doi:10.11990/jheu.201706043]
 SONG Yan,SUN Dian,SU Zifeng.Modeling and simulating evacuation timing decisions during typhoon disasters[J].hebgcdxxb,2018,39(04):793-798.[doi:10.11990/jheu.201706043]
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台风疏散时间选择决策建模与仿真(/HTML)
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《哈尔滨工程大学学报》[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
39
期数:
2018年04期
页码:
793-798
栏目:
出版日期:
2018-04-05

文章信息/Info

Title:
Modeling and simulating evacuation timing decisions during typhoon disasters
作者:
宋艳 孙典 苏子逢
哈尔滨工程大学 经济管理学院, 黑龙江 哈尔滨 150001
Author(s):
SONG Yan SUN Dian SU Zifeng
School of Economics and Management, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001, China
关键词:
台风疏散时间决策随机最优反应均衡有限理性离散选择模型博弈被疏散者期望效用交互作用
分类号:
U491
DOI:
10.11990/jheu.201706043
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为了更加准确地估计疏散需求分布以及路网清空时间,提高台风疏散的效率,考虑被疏散个体做出疏散时间策略的主观选择,从而达到被疏散人口撤离的均衡分布,将被疏散者的交互作用因素融入离散选择模型,构建了基于随机最优反应均衡理论的台风疏散时间选择模型。最后运用Matlab软件仿真分析各参数变化对均衡策略下疏散时间决策的影响,验证模型了可行性和有效性。结果表明:被疏散个体的期望效用、个体间交互作用和个体的推断能力对疏散时间选择有显著的影响。

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2017-06-13。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(71771061);黑龙江省科学基金项目(GC16D104);哈尔滨工程大学重大战略研究计划(HEUCFW170903).
作者简介:宋艳(1974-),女,教授,博士生导师;孙典(1990-),女,博士研究生.
通讯作者:孙典,E-mail:sundian@hrbeu.edu.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 2018-04-11