[1]智鹏飞,刘胜,朱琬璐,等.综合电力推进系统风险预测评估方法[J].哈尔滨工程大学学报,2019,40(05):953-959.[doi:10.11990/jheu.201801005]
 ZHI Pengfei,LIU Sheng,ZHU Wanlu,et al.A risk prediction and assessment method for an integrated electric propulsion system[J].hebgcdxxb,2019,40(05):953-959.[doi:10.11990/jheu.201801005]
点击复制

综合电力推进系统风险预测评估方法(/HTML)
分享到:

《哈尔滨工程大学学报》[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
40
期数:
2019年05期
页码:
953-959
栏目:
出版日期:
2019-05-05

文章信息/Info

Title:
A risk prediction and assessment method for an integrated electric propulsion system
作者:
智鹏飞1 刘胜2 朱琬璐1 叶辉1
1. 江苏科技大学 电子信息学院, 江苏 镇江 212003;
2. 哈尔滨工程大学 自动化学院, 黑龙江 哈尔滨 150001
Author(s):
ZHI Pengfei1 LIU Sheng2 ZHU Wanlu1 YE Hui1
1. College of Electronic Information, Jiangsu University of Science and Technology, Zhenjiang 212003, China;
2. College of Automation, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001, China
关键词:
综合电力推进系统风险预测风险评估Viterbi算法马尔可夫模型蒙特卡洛模拟网络拓扑
分类号:
U665.12
DOI:
10.11990/jheu.201801005
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为了解决综合电力推进系统在复杂环境下的风险评估延时性高和应对策略难以实时制定的问题,本文提出了一种综合电力推进系统风险预测评估方法。将传统HMM算法、Viterbi算法与统计学理论相结合,对未来连续时间点所处的工作状态进行预测分析,然后采用MHMM-Viterbi算法根据系统运行状态和外界因素影响,预测分析系统内各单元子系统在未来一段时间的工作状态,建立系统的网络拓扑风险评估模型,采用蒙特卡洛模拟系统失效状态,得到风险预测评估结果,最后以船舶综合电力推进系统为例,对本文提出的方法进行了验证。实验表明:系统风险发生概率等参数随海况等级变化而时序波动,与系统在海上航行时记录的实际风险情况相符合。

参考文献/References:

[1] DOERRY N, AMY J, KROLICK C. History and the status of electric ship propulsion, integrated power systems, and future trends in the U.S. Navy[J] Proceedings of the IEEE, 2015, 103(12):2243-2251.
[2] XIE Chuling, ZHANG Conghui. Research on the ship electric propulsion system network power quality with flywheel energy storage[C]//Proceedings of 2010 Asia-Pacific Power and Energy Engineering Conference. Chengdu, China, 2010:1-3.
[3] ZHOU Weiping, SUN Dongliang, WANG Jialin. Fault Diagnosis of ship power supply system based on grey correlation improved BP neural network[C]//Proceedings of 2015 Chinese Automation Congress. Wuhan, China, 2015:1203-1208.
[4] YANG Guang, WU Xiaoping, ZHANG Qi, et al. Fault diagnosis of ship main power system based on multi-layer fuzzy neural network[C]//Proceedings of the 6th World Congress on Intelligent Control and Automation. Dalian, China, 2006:5713-5717.
[5] MEER J V, BENDRE A, KRSTIC S, et al. Improved ship power system-generation, distribution, and fault control for electric propulsion and ship service[C]//Proceedings of 2005 IEEE Electric Ship Technologies Symposium. Philadelphia, PA, USA, 2005:284-291.
[6] ANDRUS M, RAVINDRA H, HAUER J, et al. PHIL implementation of a MVDC fault management test bed for ship power systems based on megawatt-scale modular multilevel converters[C]//Proceedings of 2015 IEEE Electric Ship Technologies Symposium. Alexandria, VA, USA, 2015:337-342.
[7] MAQSOOD A, CORZINE K. The Z-source breaker for fault protection in ship power systems[C]//Proceedings of 2014 International Symposium on Power Electronics, Electrical Drives, Automation and Motion. Ischia, Italy, 2014:307-312.
[8] WEI Gu, CHU Jianxin. Fault information model and maintenance cycle forecasting for ship’s power system[C]//Proceedings of 2002 Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium. Seattle, WA, USA, 2002:445-449.
[9] DEO P R, SHAH T P, CHONG R. Ambient-temperature fault current limiter for electric ship power systems[C]//Proceedings of 2011 IEEE Electric Ship Technologies Symposium. Alexandria, VA, USA, 2011:223-227.
[10] SU C L, SU C Y, LEE C C, et al. Fault current limiter allocation in electric ship power systems[C]//2009 IEEE Electric Ship Technologies Symposium. Baltimore, MD, USA, 2009:53-58.
[11] ZHANG Yucheng, ALI H M, DOUGAL R A. Soft reclosing of fault current limiters in electric ship power systems[C]//Proceedings of 2011 IEEE Electric Ship Technologies Symposium. Alexandria, VA, USA, 2011:244-247.
[12] BILLINTON R. Composite system reliability evaluation[J]. IEEE transactions on power apparatus and systems, 1969, PAS-88(4):276-281.
[13] LI Wenyuan. Risk assessment of power systems:models, methods, and applications[M]. Hoboken, New Jersey:Wiley, 2014.
[14] LI Wenyuan, LU Jiping. Risk evaluation of combinative transmission network and substation configurations and its application in substation planning[J]. IEEE transactions on power systems, 2005, 20(2):1144-1150.
[15] XING Bowen, LIU Sheng, CHEN Xiao, et al. Design of sensor data flow for ship information system[J]. Journal of ship production and design, 2017, 33(4):310-316.
[16] LIU Sheng, ZHI Pengfei, LI Bing, et al. A method of the simulation credibility analysis of ship electric propulsion system[C]//Proceedings of 2014 IEEE Conference and Expo Transportation Electrification Asia-Pacific. Beijing, China, 2014.
[17] Improving the reliability of MVDC ship power system[R]. 2013.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2018-1-30。
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(51579047,51279036);江苏省高等学校自然科学研究面上项目(18KJB470010).
作者简介:智鹏飞,男,讲师,博士.
通讯作者:智鹏飞,E-mail:zhipengfei@hotmail.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2019-05-14